Electrical Spare Parts Demand Forecasting
AbstractIn this paper is presented a research of electrical spare parts demand forecasting through application of conventional (moving average, exponential smoothing and naive theory), more sophisticated forecasting techniques (support vector regression, feed-forward neural networks) and adaptive model selection methodologies. Electrical spare parts demand forecasting is a fundamental task that should be performed in order to improve SCM (supply chain management). If it would be possible to know what the demand for electrical parts will be in the future, the logistics of the companies that manufacture electrical parts or retailers could be managed more accurately: selection of appropriate warehouse safety limits for each part and ability to plan the resources more precisely. Customer sales and marketing departments always perform formal forecasts, this is usually done through application of conventional methods in order to prepare future plans. Experimental results reveal that application of SVR technique guarantees the best and precise results of forecasting of weekly and daily demand of electrical parts. Furthermore, application of adaptive methodology in order to select adaptive model allowed substantially to increase forecasting accuracy.
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